Race Goal-Setting: A, B and C Goals

The three goals

Set three goals for one race, so that a good day is not wasted and a bad day is not a failure.

• A goal: your best case. Everything goes right, and it is still possible given your training.
• B goal: what you would expect on a good day.
• C goal: what still counts as a success if the weather turns or the race goes sideways. Make it something you control and a bad day cannot take, such as following your pacing plan and fueling on schedule, or finishing, and not a time.

Set the goals from the training you can do now

Base the A and B goals on what your recent training and races show, and not on a number you wish for. If a goal is far beyond what you have run, the training it needs is training you cannot yet do, so look for the nearer goal you can reach by adding a day of running, some volume, a little intensity, better recovery and lifestyle changes. A goal should still be something you cannot do right now. Adjust it slower if life interferes, or harder if the jump turns out bigger than you expected.

Do not start the build at goal pace. A goal set too early drags every workout toward a pace your body is not ready for. Run your training by feel inside known pace ranges, and let the goal pace take over in the race-specific phase.

Check the goal with short races

A recent 5K gives the first read. A 19:15 5K points to about 1:28:30 for the half marathon, midway between an A goal of 1:27:30 and a B goal of 1:30. Run two or three more 5Ks over two months, and in the last month and a half of the block move your goal pace up or down by how you feel after workouts plus your data. A PR in a tune-up race you were not tapering for is the cue to be more aggressive about your A goal.

Course and weather

Compare races for course and conditions. Two races share only the distance, so a time on a hilly course or in the heat counts for more than the same time on a flat, cool one. Do not hold your goal against a time from a different course.

Check the forecast and let it move your goals. In a 2007 study of results from seven marathons over 6 to 36 years each, performance slowed progressively as the wet-bulb globe temperature rose from 5 to 25 degrees C, and finishers from 25th to 300th place slowed more than the fastest runners¹. A hot race deserves different goals than a cool one, and the slower you run, the more the heat costs you. On the day, run by effort. See the guide on race-day pacing.

When you choose a half marathon, pick a cool, established race: under 15 C (59 F) is workable and 10 to 12 C (50 to 54 F) or cooler is better, with low humidity checked against past years.

On race day

Weather, rivals and the way you feel that morning are outside your control, and you have to be okay with the race not going to plan. That is not an excuse to hold back. In a 20 mph headwind nobody grits their way to a record, so the goal is to race your best, whatever the clock says.

Decide before the race what would move you from the A goal to the B goal, such as heat, a stomach that will not take fuel or a pace that slips early. A decision made before the start is easier to follow than one made at mile 20.

Sometimes the right thing at 20K of a marathon is to walk off, but only if you have been honest with yourself. Walking off because it is hard is a regret. Walking off because you are sick or hurt and continuing would harm you is not failure.

Before and after the race

Confidence comes from the work you have done. What makes a marathon hard is the 14, 16, 18 or 20 weeks of training and whether you show up for another tempo run when your motivation is missing. Your best chance on race day is to appreciate all of that work. Write all three goals down before race week, and read them back after the race.

Judge a race by how close you came to your own potential, and not by someone else's time.

If running turns toxic, change the run. The problem is your relationship with running and not running. Run a 5K when you are tired instead of a 15K, do not measure the run, go to the end of the block and back, or take time away.